Like Persians & Byzantines, after Collapse of USSR, Will USA break up a la Prof Panarin?
A Resurgent $ Trillions Rich China buying up US Assets
Economic Power Shifting from USA to China
"Keynes's collective work amounted to a powerful argument that capitalism was by its very nature unstable and prone to collapse. Far from trending toward some magical state of equilibrium, capitalism would inevitably do the opposite. It would lurch over a cliff," --- Hyman Minsky.
"Capitalism has conjured up such gigantic means of production and of exchange, that it is like the sorcerer who is no longer able to control the powers of the nether world whom he has called up by his spells"- Karl Marx
"When there is a general change of conditions, it is as if the entire creation had been changed and the whole world been altered." - Ibn Khaldun
"History is ruled by an inexorable determinism in which the free choice of major historical figures plays a minimal role", Leo Tolstoy
Russian Prof Igor Panarin had forecast in 1998 that USA will break up in 2010. "There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he said. He cited French political scientist Emmanuel Todd, famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," said Prof. Panarin.
Prof Panarins' forecast about USA caught attention in 2008 when the US banks and economy had the first shock and went into recession .For an elephant like US it might take another few years at best a decade, the way its economy is declining .US is spending almost as much as the rest of the world on defence or rather attacking nations illegally ie, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and now threatening Syria, which will bring the world to an East West? Shia-Sunni conflict as Iran and Russia have warned .US leaders egged by the slimy British leaders are lying shamelessly .West has no media just mouth pieces of military industry complex and war mongers . Saudi led GCC has gone mad.
A conflict around Syria , even if controlled ,will only benefit China at the expense of West and its allies and Russia and Iran.
Western and its Allies have outdone Goebbels in repeating lies and with Gestapo like surveillance by NSA, USA looks like the Nazi regime at its end .
After almost ten centuries of warfare, the Roman/Byzantine and Persian empires, both exhausted, collapsed .Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 .Now USA is treading the same path...From 7th century the Muslim Arab Bedouins conquered the former territories of the two empires from Morocco to China's border.
Western destruction and wars are creating thousands of Jihadists, some heart eating ones .What will some of them do on return, especially in EU with almost 10 million Muslims in Germany, France and elsewhere, and disaffected Black Muslims in USA.
While US and its allies are hell bent on destruction including their own, a resurgent and trillions dollar rich China is buying up US companies and assets and elsewhere too.
Please also read the details of China's purchase of US assets and companies at the end .Beijing is even panning to build a canal in Nicaragua parallel to Panama Canal costing $40 Billion .Surely it will build a naval base sooner or later .
The world even without a catastrophic war around Syria is headed for an epochal transformation already underway.
URL of my ten articles written since 2000 on the decline of American century and its hegemony;
Ambassador (Retd) K Gajendra Singh 26 August 2013 ,Mayur Vihar, Delhi-91
This is not a coffee break quickie .Spend some time to comprehend the possible shape of the world.
Wall Street Journal, December 29, 2008
As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010
ANDREW OSBORN
MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.
IGOR PANARIN
In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."
Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.
But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.
A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.
"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.
Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.
In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.
Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."
Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.
Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.
The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."
In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.
"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."
At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for any reason," he says with a sly grin.
Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.
Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.
For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.
The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.
Meet Your New Boss: Buying Large Employers Will Enable China to Dominate 1000s of U.S. Communities
June 8, 2013
Are you ready for a future where China will employ millions of American workers and dominate thousands of small communities all over the United States? Such a future would be unimaginable to many Americans, but the truth is that it is already starting to happen. Chinese acquisition of U.S. businesses set a new all-time record last year, and it is on pace to absolutely shatter that record this year. Meanwhile, China is voraciously gobbling up real estate and is establishing economic beachheads all over America. If China continues to build economic power inside the United States, it will eventually become the dominant economic force in thousands of small communities all over the nation. Just think about what the Smithfield Foods acquisition alone will mean. Smithfield Foods is the largest pork producer and processor in the world. It has facilities in 26 U.S. states and it employs tens of thousands of Americans. It directly owns 460 farms and has contracts with approximately 2,100 others. But now a Chinese company has bought it for $4.7 billion, and that means that the Chinese will now be the most important employer in dozens of rural communities all over America. If you don't think that this is important, you haven't been paying much attention to what has been going on in the world. Thanks in part to our massively bloated trade deficit with China, the Chinese have trillions of dollars to spend. They are only just starting to exercise their economic muscles. And it is important to keep in mind that there is often not much of a difference between "the Chinese government" and "Chinese corporations". In 2011, 43 percent of all profits in China were produced by companies that the Chinese government had a controlling interest in. Americans are accustomed to thinking of "government" and "business" as being separate things, but in China they are often one and the same. Even when there is a separation in ownership, the reality is that no major Chinese corporation is going to go against the authority and guidance of the Chinese government. The relationship between government and business in China is much different than it is in the United States. Over the past several years, Chinese companies have become increasingly aggressive. Last year a Chinese company spent $2.6 billion to purchase AMC entertainment – one of the largest movie theater chains in the United States. Now that Chinese company controls more movie ticket sales than anyone else in the world. At the time, that was the largest acquisition of a U.S. firm by a Chinese company, but now the Smithfield Foods deal has greatly surpassed that.
But China is not just relying on acquisitions to expand its economic power. The truth is that "economic beachheads" are being established all over America. For example, Golden Dragon Precise Copper Tube Group, Inc. recently broke ground on a $100 million plant in Thomasville, Alabama. I am sure that many of the residents of Thomasville, Alabama will be glad to have jobs, but it will also become yet another community that will now be heavily dependent on communist China. And guess where else Chinese companies are putting down roots?
Detroit.
Dozens of companies from China are putting down roots in Detroit, part of the country's steady push into the American auto industry.
Chinese-owned companies are investing in American businesses and new vehicle technology, selling everything from seat belts to shock absorbers in retail stores, and hiring experienced engineers and designers in an effort to soak up the talent and expertise of domestic automakers and their suppliers.
If you recently purchased an "American-made vehicle", there is a really good chance that it has Chinese parts in it.
In fact, it is becoming harder and harder to get auto parts that are actually made in America by American companies. A lot of those companies are dying off. One example of this is a battery maker that had received $132 million from the federal government that was recently gobbled up by a huge Chinese corporation… Industry analysts are hard-pressed to put a number on the Chinese suppliers operating in the United States. "We simply don't know how many there are," said David Andrea, an official with the Original Equipment Suppliers Association, a trade organization for auto parts makers.
In one of the more prominent deals, the Wanxiang Group bought most of the assets of the battery maker A123 Systems, which filed for bankruptcy last year despite receiving $132 million of $249 million in federal grants to build two factories in Michigan.
Congressional Republicans criticized the deal, saying A123′s technology could support military applications in China. Still, the buyout was approved this year by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, a federal government panel.
China seems particularly interested in acquiring energy resources in the United States. For example, did you know that China is actually mining for coal in the mountains of Tennessee?
Guizhou Gouchuang Energy Holdings Group spent 616 million dollars to acquire Triple H Coal Co. in Jacksboro, Tennessee. At the time, that acquisition really didn't make much news, but now a group of conservatives in Tennessee is trying to stop the Chinese from blowing up their mountains and taking their coal. The following is from a Wall Street Journal article back in March… The Tennessee Conservative Union began airing an ad Tuesday that says lawmakers have failed to protect the state's scenic mountains and are allowing the "Chinese to destroy our mountains and take our coal…the same folks who hold our debt."
But when it comes to our energy resources, China has been most interested in our oil and natural gas. It is a complete and total mystery why the federal government would allow China to buy up our precious domestic sources of energy, but it is happening. The following is a list of some of the oil and natural gas deals that China has been involved in during the last few years that was compiled by the Wall Street Journal… Colorado: Cnooc gained a one-third stake in 800,000 acres in northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming in a $1.27 billion pact with Chesapeake Energy Corp.
Louisiana: Sinopec has a one-third interest in 265,000 acres in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale after a broader $2.5-billion deal with Devon Energy.
Michigan: Sinopec gained a one-third interest in 350,000 acres in a larger $2.5 billion deal with Devon Energy.
Ohio: Sinopec acquired a one-third stake in Devon Energy's 235,000 Utica Shale acres in a larger $2.5 billion deal.
Oklahoma: Sinopec has a one-third interest in 215,000 acres in a broader $2.5 billion deal with Devon Energy.
Texas: Cnooc acquired a one-third interest in Chesapeake Energy's 600,000 acres in the Eagle Ford Shale in a $2.16-billion deal.
Wyoming: Cnooc has a one-third stake in 800,000 acres in northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming after a $1.27 billion pact with Chesapeake Energy. Sinopec gained a one-third interest in Devon Energy's 320,000 acres as part of a larger $2.5 billion deal.
Gulf of Mexico: Cnooc Ltd. separately acquired minority stakes in some of Statoil ASA's leases as well as six of Nexen Inc.'s deep-water wells.
How could we be so stupid?
Sadly, as our politicians endlessly bicker China just continues to aggressively push ahead.
And pretty soon China may want to build entire cities in the United States just like they have been doing in other countries. According toBloomberg, right now China is actually building a city larger than Manhattan just outside of the capital of Belarus… China is building an entire city in the forests near the Belarusian capital Minsk to create a manufacturing springboard between the European Union andRussia. Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenkoallotted an area 40 percent larger than Manhattanaround Minsk's international airport for the $5 billion development, which will include enough housing to accommodate 155,000 people, according to Chinese and Belarusian officials. And this is actually already happening on a much smaller scale in this country. For example, as I have written about previously, a Chinese company known as "Sino-Michigan Properties LLC" has purchased 200 acres of land near the little town of Milan, Michigan. Their stated goal is to construct a "China City" that has artificial lakes, a Chinese cultural center and hundreds of housing units for Chinese citizens. In other cases, large chunks of real estate in the middle of major U.S. cities are being gobbled up by Chinese "investors". Just check out what a Fortune articlefrom a while back says has been happening in Toledo, Ohio… In March 2011, Chinese investors paid $2.15 million cash for a restaurant complex on the Maumee River in Toledo, Ohio. Soon they put down another $3.8 million on 69 acres of newly decontaminated land in the city's Marina District, promising to invest $200 million in a new residential-commercial development. That September, another Chinese firm spent $3 million for an aging hotel across a nearby bridge with a view of the minor league ballpark.
Are you starting to get the picture?
#2 During 2012, we sold about 110 billion dollars worth of stuff to the Chinese, but they sold about 425 billion dollars worth of stuff to us. That was the largest trade deficit that one nation has had with another nation in the history of the world. #12 One of the reasons it is so hard to export stuff to China is because of their tariffs. According to the New York Times, a Jeep Grand Cherokee that costs $27,490 in the United States costs about $85,000 in China thanks to all the tariffs. #13 The Chinese economy has grown 7 times faster than the U.S. economy has over the past decade. #15 The United States has lost an average of 50,000 manufacturing jobs per month since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. #16 Overall, the United States has lost a total of more than 56,000manufacturing facilities since 2001. #17 According to the Economic Policy Institute, America is losing half a million jobs to China every single year. #19 since the auto industry bailout, approximately 70 percent of all GM vehicles has been built outside the United States. #20 after being bailed out by U.S. taxpayers, General Motors is currently involved in 11 joint ventures with companies owned by the Chinese government. The price for entering into many of these "joint ventures" was a transfer of "state of the art technology" from General Motors to the communist Chinese. #21 back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world's high-tech export market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had less than 15 percent and China's share had soared to 20 percent. #22 The United States has lost more than a quarter of all of its high-tech manufacturing jobs over the past ten years. #24 The U.S. trade deficits with China are now more than 30 times larger than it was back in 1990. #27 China uses more cement than the rest of the world combined. #29 there is more pigs in China than in the next 43 pork producing nations combined. #33 China now produces 11 times as much steel as the United States does. #36 A recent investigation by the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services found more than one million counterfeit Chinese parts in the Department of Defense supply chain. #37 15 years ago, China was 14th in the world in published scientific research articles. But now, China is expected to pass the United States and become number one very shortly. #39 The average household debt load in the United States is 136% of average household income. In China, the average household debt loadis 17% of average household income. #40 The Chinese have begun to buy up huge amounts of U.S. real estate. In fact, Chinese citizens purchased one out of every ten homes that were sold in the state of California in 2011. And what we have seen so far may just be the tip of the iceberg as far as Chinese "investment" in U.S. real estate is concerned. The following is a brief excerpt from a Bloomberg article that was posted just last week… China is studying the possibility of investing a portion of its $3.4 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves in U.S. real estate, said two people with direct knowledge of the situation.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange began the study after seeing signs of a recovery in the U.S. property market, said the people, who asked not to be identified as they weren't authorized to speak publicly about the matter. China may acquire properties, invest in real estate funds or buy stakes in property companies, they said. The safety of the investments will be the top priority, said the people, who didn't elaborate on a timetable or other details.
So what can we do about all of this?
Unfortunately, not a whole lot. Both major political parties seem to be fully convinced that merging our economy with the economy of communist China is a great idea. I would not expect major changes in our policies regarding China any time soon.
For now, I will just leave you with one piece of advice…
Learn to speak Chinese. You might need it someday.
![[Igor Panarin]](file:///C:/Users/abcd/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image001.gif)
