The Bears left a calling card at Guam
The "highly unusual but not unprecedented" appearance of two Russian Tu-95 long-range Bear bombers in the skies over Guam, the United States military base in the Pacific, can be interpreted in many ways. For one thing, such 'incidents' are invariably calibrated with great deliberation, given the tortuous history of Russian-American relationship, and the fact remains that the Bear's long-range flight with multiple refueling virtually coincided with President Barack Obama's State of the Union address last Tuesday in Washington where he spoke of his intention to "engage" Russia on arms reduction.
The Russians obviously knew that the US (and Japanese) long-range radars and the American satellites would pick up the two Bears the moment they took off from their bases in northeast Russia. Indeed, the Bears were meant to catch attention and they probably succeeded in that mission.
The message is a straight one: Russia may be a diminished power but it still has the thermonuclear capability to destroy the US — and, more important, the Kremlin intends to keep it that way, ensuring the global strategic balance.
Conceivably, the Russians would have tested the American (and Japanese) air defence systems. Was it a provocative move by Russia? The Americans themselves play down and estimate that it was a "generally very professional" Russian move — whatever that may mean.
The point is, US long-range B-52 bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons also happen to be based in Guam. What tickles the mind, however, would be that this happened when the US-Russia relations continue to deteriorate.
To recount the last fortnight's developments alone, Russia has banned all meat imports from the US on the ground that the Americans use steroids on cattle which could have health implications. The 'meat lobby' in the US is politically powerful. Washington blasted the Russian move, but Moscow has let it be known that the ban will remain in place for the foreseeable future.
Again, Washington alleged that the new secretary of state John Kerry repeatedly tried to speak on phone with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov but failed to connect. The Russian side explains that Lavrov was traveling in Africa. Maybe, Lavrov might return the call some day, but Faggy Bottom is showing irritation. And Moscow shrugs it off.
Furthermore, President Vladimir Putin made one of his strongest and most assertive statements on Eurasian integration last week to snub the US criticism that Moscow is reviving the Soviet Union and warning that Washingnton will oppose the Russian moves in that direction.
Even more blunt has been the accusation by the head of Russian intelligence Alexander Bortnikov that there has been an "escalation of geopolitical pressure" on Russia by the US and its allies. Interestingly, Bortnikov spoke even as the two Bears headed for Guam.
Of course, Moscow was hoping that Obama would pay an early visit to Russia, but that is not to be. Quite obviously, Kerry also is no hurry to schedule a Russia visit. He is instead traveling to the Middle East and Europe this week.
From all appearances, Moscow is not amused that Washington is 'downgrading' the ties with Russia. Washington has not helped matters by virtually hinting in advance that a 'secret letter' that NSA Thomas Donilon might deliver to the Kremlin sometime soon might carry proposals on nuclear disarmament. The influential Russian politician Alexei Pushkov who is regarded as close to the Kremlin, poured scorn at the White House.
What emerges is that a classic shadow boxing is going on between the two seasoned adversaries over the core issue of global strategic balance. Obama had promised the Kremlin leadership an year ago that he'd address Russian concerns over the US missile defence after his re-eletion.
But it now seems that Obama is ducking when the time came. The Russians waited — and waited — and even gently reminded Obama of his old promise but Obama is proclaiming that he is obsessed with the recovery of the US economy which leaves little time for anything else. Meanwhile, of course, the US is going ahead with its deployment of the missile defence system, especially in the Far East.
Moscow has been left to figure out that Obama's priorities don't lie in 're-resetting' the Russia ties. All things considered, therefore, the Bears probably left a calling card at Guam, which is also the headquarters of the US Pacific Command.
– February 17, 2013
