The FOUNDATION FOR INDO-TURKIC STUDIES (FITS) is an independent research and policy Foundation , Established in 1999 it is devoted to the study and analysis of policies of countries inhabited by peoples speaking Aryan, Turkic and allied languages, stretching from Mongolia, Eastern Russia and Western China through Central Asia, the Caspian basin ,the Caucasus to Eastern Europe and down to South Asia with special focus from India and to promote cooperation.
The Khwarezmian Empire, also spelt as Chorasmia , based on the Amu Darya (Oxus) delta, south of the Aral Sea coast, an entrepot for exchange of goods between Slavic lands in the West , Muslim states in South and China in the East , began as a part of the Ghaznavid empire .Its founder, Anushtegin , a slave , was appointed governor of Khwarezm around 1077 by Sultan Malik Shah of the Seljuqs , who had replaced the Ghaznavids as the new warlords in the region. Anushtegin's descendants governed Khwarezm on behalf of the Seljuqs but , the 1141 defeat of Seljuq Sultan Sanjar by Buddhist Karakitai (Qara Khitay) confederation of northern China, forced Anushtegin's grandson Atsiz to acknowledge the overall sovereignty of the Karakitai.
Following Sanjar's death in 1157, Khwarezm Shah Tekish emerged as one of the contenders for supremacy in Iran. By 1200 his son the Khwarezm Shah Allauddin Muhammad II emerged victorious ( reigned 1200 –20). He took over all of Persia from the Seljuk Turks by 1205 and in1212 defeated the Gur-Khan of the Karakitai. Now his empire stretched from the borders of India to those of Anatolia. But Muhammad II, a vain man unable to control his army leaders, thought himself to be Alexander the Great II.
Muhammad II won approval in the Islamic world by freeing himself from a humiliating tributary status to an infidel power, the Karakitai. But the coup de grace to the Karakitai Empire was delivered by Gurkhan's own vassal from the east, Küchlüg Khan, a renegade Mongol. Thus, from 1211 onward Muhammad II faced another hostile opponent in Central Asia, Küchlüg Khan. But the destruction of Karakitai only worsened the situation on the eastern border. The post-Karakitai wars between him and Küchlüg Khan damaged the safety of the Central Asian trade arteries from China to the West.
At the same time the new Mongol leader Genghis Khan had risen to power and took over Peking in 1215 as the lord of China. While agriculture revenues were important, customs duties from the caravan trade along the silk routes passing through their territories were very important .So Genghis Khan was much concerned with Chinese trade outlets to the West.
Unlike the fighting forces based on tribal levies and loyalties in trans-Oxania and in the Islamic world, Genghis Khan, himself an orphan with no clan loyalties, structured his forces mostly from detribalized warriors on the Chinese bureaucratic principle. He was free to augment his forces by reorganizing his defeated foes into tens and hundreds and put his own men in command over each of the units. ( A modern variation is Al Qaeda and its self perpetuating cells, without loyalties to states ie tribes but the Ummah)
Genghis Khan first sent a goodwill mission with gifts to Muhammad II expressing desire for trade relations. Two years alter he sent a trade caravan of 450 men , mostly Muslims with about 500 camels, laden with merchandise of gold, silver, Chinese silk, targhu stuffs, beaver-skins, sables, and other articles. The caravan was detained as spies by order of Muhamood II 's governor Inalchik in the frontier province of Utrar . There is some confusion among historians on the degree of responsibility borne by Muhammad II and his governor, but except one all the traders were killed. According to one historian, the governor acted solely out of cupidity to seize the merchants' wares after informing the Shah that the merchants were behaving like spies. While the Shah had sent an order to only detain them, the governor carried out the massacre at his own initiative. Later the Shah was obliged to condone his governor's action.
Ibn al-Athar's account blames the Sultan who ordered the merchants to be killed, their merchandise sold to the merchants of Bukhara and Samarqand .He divided the spoils from the sales with his governor. It is very likely that the sale of the merchandise to the merchants (with a profit for them) was partly to compensate them for the cessation of trade with the nomad Mongols.
At the same time Muhammad II had dispatched an embassy to Genghis Khan on a spying mission without any intention of entering into commercial relations .Therefore he suspected the caravan sent by the Mongols had the same purpose.
When Genghis Khan sent 3 diplomats to Muhammad II for reparations, one was killed and the beards of the two were burnt.
Genghis Khan retaliated with a force of around 200,000 men and soon stormed Bukhara and Samarkand , now the Khwarezmian capital. The Shah fled but was hounded out. He escaped to an island in the Caspian Sea and died a few weeks later. And many of the lustrous cities of Central Asia on the Silk routes , like Bukhara, Samarkand , Khiva ,Termez , Herat etc lay in smoking ruins
"Regardless of how one resolves the question of who really provoked the Mongol-Khorezmian war, its outcome was as predictable as the war itself was inevitable."
Muhammad's son Jalaladdin Mingburnu became the new Shah but he had to flee towards India. He was caught up by Mongols and defeated at the Battle of Indus .He and his closest followers then fled to Armenia where they attacked the Seljuk Sultanate of Rum .He was defeated and assassinated in 1231. But his followers remained loyal to him even after his death and raided the Seljuk lands calling themselves the Khwarezmiyyas. Ayyubid Sultan Salahaddin later hired them as mercenaries and they helped him capture Jerusalem in 1244 , triggering the 7th Crusade .The Khwarezmiyyas served in Egypt as Mameluks before they were finally defeated by Mansur Ibrahim some years later.
It would appear that Jenghiz Khan had still not decided whether to establish trade relations with Khwarezm empire or conquer it. Unfortunately his hand was forced by the actions of Mahmood II and his Governor Inalchik in Otrar.
Taming of the Soviet Union;
Things have not changed that much even now. One of the determinants of modern day economic might is the availability and control over raw materials, now a days energy resources and control over sea and land routes. Military power is used to augment economic wealth by even plain plunder .Economic power is then used to further reinforce the military muscle.
The Cold War was a competition between the two blocks, with mutual assured destruction ie military capability of destroying each other but the Soviet Union lost out having been forced to divert unconscionable amount of its GDP to maintain military parity. US led West was fortunate in having two Russian leaders , a naïve Mikhail Gorbachev , who apparently knew little about communism or capitalism and was frightened by US threats of embarking on a Star Wars program , matching which would have proved ruinous to the Soviet economy.( There are simpler solutions as Russia now suggests ). He was dazzled by his popularity in the manipulated US media (which now brushes aside Gorbachev outbursts against the West) as a historic peace maker, which he found of little avail at home when he stood for Presidential elections .He was a total failure in leveraging Soviet military power (yes, some money in royalties for his books and lecture fees in the West) Look at the way the north Koreans are playing the game or even Iran, just with a threat to become a nuclear power. After all Israel holds the Middle East to ransom by its undeclared nuclear bombs and its patron USA defied UN opposition and invaded Iraq unilaterally for its oil wealth.
Then Russia had the second misfortune of having a mostly drunk or drugged Boris Yeltsin . Hundreds of billions worth of Russian peoples' wealth was privatized into personal fortunes and transferred to western banks and institutions, real estate and football clubs. Whenever Yeltsin or his Prime Minister Chernomyrdin gave signs of an independent line, Western media leaked news of their reportedly billions of dollars in western banks. Chernomyrdin, as a mediator sold out Serbia and its leader Milosevic to the West. Curiously he was Russia's ambassador in Kiev, Ukraine, when in a US financed and supported franchised street revolution, an openly pro US Victor Yushchenko was elected its President last year. Privatisation in Russia has manufactured scores of US dollar billionaires from unabashed loot of its peoples' wealth, who in turn have been burdened with hundreds billions dollars of debt. When Russia tries to regulate these robber barons, US corporate media howls in protests while not opposing trial and sentencing of criminals who ran Enron and Welcome.com into bankruptcy.
History did not end with the fall of the Berlin Wall, a proposition coined by economist Francis Fukuyama ,but he has now asked for return of state controls ( but US media makes little mention) . USA , now feeling supreme and arrogant stealthily encroached on the strategic Russian space in former communist nations which it had acquired by destroying and defeating the ruthless Nazi war machine and sacrificing 30 million lives ( for which the Anglo-Saxon media gave all credit to the West, with a fraction of human sacrifice). US led West is increasing its economic power by controlling the newly independent former Communist countries through the so-called globalization, which as implemented , is but a modern day version of Capitulations, which had given unfettered sovereign powers in the Ottoman empire to foreign traders in their commercial enterprises .These were later extended to non-Muslim subjects of a multi-religious societies and helped unravel the Ottoman empire. Similar concessions to foreigners extracted by gun boat diplomacy impoverished and ruined China.
US led Rape in Iraq;
It is now crystal clear that the unilateral invasion of Iraq, insultingly dubbed 'Operation Iraqi Freedom' , a doable regime change operation, as Vice President Cheney told Prince Hasan of Jordan, apart from gaining strategic control over Iraq's hydrocarbon reserves and to strengthen control over the region with its vast energy resources , was also to maintain the U.S. dollar as the monopoly currency for the critical international oil market.
US deputy Defence Secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, in his arrogance openly declared in Singapore that the claims of WMD' s and other accusations for invading Iraq were only for bureaucratic justification. He also told the US Congress how the Iraq oil wealth would finance the invasion and Iraq's re-construction (for the greater economic gains of US multinationals like Vice-President's former company Halliburton ) and maintain new military bases in Iraq . How would Wolfowitz ,now President World Bank, finance poor countries development!
To achieve US objectives puppet governments have been installed in Iraq. What a galaxy of star turns . US Viceroy Paul Bremer , under whom over 8 billions of US dollars from Iraqi oil sales remain fully unaccounted for as pointed out by US government audit .This was rubbed in by British MP George Galloway in the US Senate Committee who had put to sword false accusations against him that he gained from UN's Food for Oil progamme .Every one has been accused in the programme including UN Secretary General Kofi Annan , he, for describing the invasion of Iraq illegal and trying to reform the UN , dominated by power balance after the 2ndworld war, which has now also become unrepresentative. George Bush has shown his disregard for the UN by sending John Bolton as Ambassador , an outspoken opponent of UN , even against the wishes of the US Congress . UN's Oil for Food Programme was vitiated by USA and UK and many have accused them for the death of half a million Iraqi children in the implementation of the UN sanctions.
Those now ruling and robbing Iraq are convicted embezzlers like Ahmed Chalabi ,CIA and MI5 agents like former Prime Minster Iyad Allawi and other exiles ,some of whom the US is realizing are now promoting in Iraq, interests of Iran ,US's current bete noire .The rulers have little idea or concern or capability in reducing the sufferings of Iraqis and are busy lining their pockets .
It is now clear that Saddam Hussein sealed his fate when he announced on September 2000 that Iraq would no longer accept dollars for oil being sold under the UN's Oil-for-Food program, and decided to switch to the euros as Iraq's oil export currency.
During 2003 - 04, information provided by former insiders in the Administration revealed that the US wanted to establish multiple U.S military bases, now under construction in Iraq, before the onset of global Peak Oil, and to reconvert Iraq back to petrodollars hoping to stop further OPEC momentum towards the Euro as an alternative oil transaction currency ( i.e. "petro-euro").
After the occupation of Iraq its oil sales were switched back to US dollars -- the international currency of oil sales - despite the fall in US dollars value, thus the confirming this vital fact but not so well known as rationales for 2003 the Iraq war. Saddam Hussein's sale of Iraq's oil for euros, a political move had also improved Iraq's earnings because of the euro's appreciation against the dollar. The change back to US dollars has decreased the revenues for rebuilding Iraq's infrastructure.
The US objective was confirmed by a Financial Times article as early as June 5 ,2003 , that Iraqi oil sales would be once again denominated in U.S. dollars – not euros.
In fact on 20 August CNN , with its jingle " Be the first to know " telecast a documentary with the motive of blaming the director of US intelligence for not providing good intelligence for the decision to attack. The whole world by now knows that the decision to invade Iraq was planned by the so called Vulcan group set up by the incoming Administration, even before George W. Bush was installed in the White House after the flawed 2000 elections. CNN could have done such a film earlier. Why does it not do a film on Iraqi resistance and US responsibility in creating a climate for a civil war in Iraq.
There is so little of such news in US corporate controlled media , where 5 conglomerates control 90%of media outlets , thus undermining a pillar of democracy in USA.
Will it be now Iran's turn !
Iran has gone even ahead of Iraq and would start operating an oil bourse for trading in oil from next year. No wonder since more than a year, there have been threats of US attack on Iran under the pretext of its nuclear bombs programme. Scott Ritter , former UN's weapons inspector in Iraq has been saying since more than a year that it could have happened this June , but perhaps the Iraqi quagmire has at least delayed it . No wonder Iran would like the quagmire to worsen, while it strengthens its own position in Iraq.
William Clarke wrote in Global research website on 27 October, 2004 that the Tehran government's plan for 2006 to begin competing with New York's NYMEX and London's IPE with respect to international oil trades - using a euro-denominated international oil-trading mechanism , would amount to an "offense" far greater than Saddam Hussein's conversion to the euro of Iraq's oil exports in the fall of2000 . Numerous articles have revealed Pentagon planning for operations against Iran as early as 2005 under the public pretext of Iran's nuclear ambitions, but the real reasons are the 2ndstage of petrodollar warfare – Iran's upcoming euro-based oil Bourse.
Clark noted that an advisor to Iran's oil ministry, Mohammad Javed Asemipour, responsible for establishing the petro-bourse , had first said that the platform for trading crude, natural gas and petrochemicals would start functioning in Mach, 2005 , but the decision was postponed to early 2006 . Asemipour had indicated that other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries – Iran is OPEC's no2 producer after Saudi Arabia - as well as oil producers from the Caspian region would eventually participate in the exchange." This will make petrodollar hegemony unsustainable.
Clark added that "Chris Cook, who previously worked for the IPE and now offers consultancy services to markets through Partnerships Consulting LLP in London, commented: "Post-9/11, there has also been an interest in the project from the Saudis, who weren't interested in participating before."
"Others familiar with Iran's economy said since 9 /11, Saudi Arabian investors are opting to invest in Iran rather than traditional western markets as the kingdom's relations with the U.S. have weakened. Iran's oil ministry has made no secret of its eagerness to attract much needed foreign investment in its energy sector and broaden its choice of oil buyers."
"…Along with several other members of OPEC, Iranian oil officials believe crude trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the IPE is controlled by the oil majors and big financial companies, who benefit from market volatility." This should be clear to even laymen as high prices only fatten profits of US energy multinationals and speculators, insiders into the workings of Washington.
In April 2002 , Mr. Javad Yarjani, an OPEC executive, described three pivotal events that would facilitate an OPEC transition to Euros ; (1) if and when Norway's Brent crude is re-dominated in euros , (2) if and when the U.K. adopts the euro, and (3) whether or not the euro gains parity valuation relative to the dollar, and the EU's proposed expansion plans were successful. The last two criteria have been fulfilled, with euro trading higher than dollar and the euro-based E.U. expanded from 12 to 22 countries in May 2004 . UK remains uncomfortably juxtaposed between the financial interests of the U.S. banking nexus (New York/Washington) and the E.U. financial centers (Paris/Frankfurt).
The upcoming bourse will introduce petrodollar versus petro-euro currency hedging, and fundamentally new dynamics to the biggest market in the world - global oil and gas trades
How will the US Federal Reserve react? "Will the neoconservatives (in Bush Administration) attempt to intervene covertly and/or overtly in Iran during 2005 in an effort to prevent the formation of a euro-denominated crude oil pricing mechanism?"
There have been frequent reports that egged on by neo-cons, US is planning military options for an attack on Iran's nuclear installations. Other reports concern likely attacks by the regional outlaw , Israel , which had also destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactor in early 1980s .Israel reportedly possesses a horde of 100 nuclear bombs and follows policies disapproved almost by all . The Israelis and Zionists have exploited Europeans guilt over the Holocaust and its money bags can defeat any US lawmaker who even utters a word against its illegal actions .None of the two US Presidential candidates spoke a word against Israel's policies in the middle east , which even Israel's friend and almost an ally in the region Turkey described as 'state terrorism' .
Consequences of another irrational operation, now against Iran;
Clark concluded that "a successful Iranian bourse would solidify the petro-euro as an alternative oil transaction currency, and thereby end the petrodollar's hegemonic status as the monopoly oil currency. Therefore, a graduated approach is needed to avoid precipitous U.S. economic dislocations. Multilateral compromise with the EU and OPEC regarding oil currency is certainly preferable to an 'Operation Iranian Freedom,'
In case of such an irrational undertaking, the Monterey Institute of International Studies in an extensive analysis of the possible consequences of a preemptive attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, warned:
"Considering the extensive financial and national policy investment Iran has committed to its nuclear projects, it is almost certain that an attack by Israel or the United States would result in immediate retaliation. A likely scenario includes an immediate Iranian missile counterattack on Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf, followed by a very serious effort to destabilize Iraq and foment all-out confrontation between the United States and Iraq's Shi'i majority. Iran could also opt to destabilize Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states with a significant Shi'i population, and induce Lebanese Hizbullah to launch a series of rocket attacks on Northern Israel."
"…An attack on Iranian nuclear facilities…could have various adverse effects on U.S. interests in the Middle East and the world. Most important, in the absence of evidence of an Iranian illegal nuclear program, an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by the U.S. or Israel would be likely to strengthen Iran's international stature and reduce the threat of international sanctions against Iran. Such an event is more likely to embolden and expand Iran's nuclear aspirations and capabilities in the long term"…" one thing is for certain, it would not be just another Osirak . "
Iran's Nuclear programme;
Is Iran close to making a nuclear bomb and has it violated the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by restarting its conversion of yellow cake into uranium hexaflouride? No, in both the cases . Iran's actions have only exposed the inequities of NPT, which favour only the have-nots.
Patrick J. Buchanan wrote on Aug 12 , 2005 that according to "a recent U.S. intelligence review, Iran may be 10 years away from a bomb. And under the NPT, Iran is allowed to enrich uranium for use in her own nuclear power plants." Iran has shown no wish to fight with USA and " if Iran had a weapon, to give it to a terrorist or to use it on a U.S. target would be an act of suicidal insanity" Yes , " if or when Iran goes nuclear,(and ) she has a deterrent to intimidation, U.S. freedom of action in the Persian Gulf comes to an end."
"For the Israelis, an Iranian bomb would have the same impact as Stalin's explosion of a bomb had on us in 1949 . Israel's invulnerability would come to an end. She would enter the world of Mutual Assured Destruction, like the one we had to live in during the Cold War. Thus, for Israel, the sooner the Americans pulverize Iran's infant nuclear facilities, the better."
Britain, France and Germany, negotiating with Iran to find a solution to the West created problem are not keen to go to the U.N. Security Council for a vote on sanctions against Iran, as such a resolution would face vetoes by Russia and China, thus dividing the UN between Russia-China-Iran on one side and the United States and its backers on the other. How many, even U.S. allies would be willing to support sanctions on the third largest oil producer on earth when oil is running at $65 a barrel.
And if USA attacks Iran's nuclear sites , then Michael Mazeer of the U.S. National War College explained in 'The New Republic ', Iran would lash out in retaliation. It would send "Revolutionary Guards into Iraq to make that country a worse hell for the 135, 000 U.S. troops. Incite Hezbollah to launch rockets on Israel to widen the war. Attack U.S. allies in the Gulf. Encourage the Shias in Iraq and Saudi Arabia to attack Americans. Mine the Strait of Hormuz. Activate Islamic loyalists to bring terror home to the United States.
"In short, a U.S. attack on Iran could lead to war across the region and interruption of the 15 million barrels of oil a day that come from the Gulf, which would drive the world economy into instant cardiac arrest. --Iran is a nation three times the size of Iraq and with three times the population. This would be no cakewalk."
Following failed US policies in the region , Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Syria , Sunni states are watching in dismay Iran emerging as a major player and bulwark against USA and the leader of the Muslims and applauded even in Asia and Africa. Iran has survived Arabs, Turks and Mongols .It has a negotiating manner anchored in ancient statecraft leavened with recent centuries of unsatisfactory relations with American, European and Russian powers.
Iran, Syria and Hizbullah have emerged in the past few years as the principal parties defying American power in this region, following Washington's accusations against them in the fields of terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, nuclear proliferation, and their policies in Lebanon and Palestine-Israel. "Their anti-American defiance tends to be primarily rhetorical and political, because none of them is stupid enough to challenge the U.S. militarily, except possibly indirectly in Iraq."
As Rami Khouri concluded recently in Beirut's Daily Star , "Washington has used both the Iraq and Lebanon situations as instruments to pressure and mildly threaten Syria, with some success. Because Iraq is an evolving situation, local powers like Syria and Iran - with memories of how to engage foreign armies going back several millennia - are carefully calibrating their policies in view of America's combined vulnerabilities, determination, power and perplexity in Iraq. Both leaderships have a track record of engaging, delaying, challenging, waiting and finally consummating deals with external powers that threaten them, as they do today with the U.S. and the European Union." Khouri might prove to be too optimistic, in view of the bulldozing policies of Neo-Cons driven Washington.
The world has seen hubris driven American policies, arrogance, accusations and double standards against Arab and Islamic states which Iran now challenges head-on. Now that USA is caught in the Iraqi quagmire where most US enemies , it has such a talent for creating them , want it to remain stuck .And George W. Bush has yet not given any indication to disappoint them.
Third World War;
Paul Craig Roberts, a Fellow at the Independent Institute and former associate editor of the Wall Street Journal and a former assistant secretary of the U.S. Treasury warned recently to 'Get Ready for World War III ' and wrote that with polls showing majorities of Americans both fed up with Bush's war against Iraq and convinced that Bush's invasion of Iraq has made Americans less safe, "the White House moron proposes to start another war by attacking Iran. VP Cheney has already ordered the US Strategic Command to come up with plans to strike Iran with tactical nuclear weapons." In a recent interview with Israeli TV, Bush said: "All options are on the table" with regard to Iran.
"Israel's Likud government is Bush's last remaining ally in his war against "Islamic terrorism." Israel, which is loaded with nuclear weapons and is not a signatory to the nuclear pacts, is the accuser against Iran, asserting that Iran's nuclear energy program is just a veil behind which to produce weapons. Iran, however, has signed the nonproliferation pact and is willing for the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor the nuclear energy program.
"Bush, however, dismisses all facts and assurances and is willing to attack Iran based on nothing but paranoia."
Iran's role in history;
Situated at the crossroads and itself a cradle of many great civilizations, Iran has exercised great civilizing influence since ancient times. Whosoever (King of Kings, Sahanshah in Darius's words), ruled what now constitutes Iran, exercised great political and cultural influence not only in the neighborhood but also in far-off places.
During the classical Greek political and social evolution in western Asia Minor which Turkey was then called, the Persian Achaemenid dynasty had its satrapies and outposts on the Aegean coast, known as Ionia, from which the word Yunan for Greece entered the eastern lexicon. In 517 BC it was Persian Emperor Darius who ordered Scylax, his Greek subject from Caria (western Turkey) to survey the river Indus from Peshawar to its exit into the sea, part of his empire. And for the first time, the West became acquainted with India. Herodotus's chapters on Indian history were based on records of that exploration.
The Persians routinely crossed over to European Thrace and a Greek victory over the Persians in 490 BC at Marathon, perhaps the first of the West over the East, is still commemorated as an athletic event in the Olympics (showing Western bias in sports). Later, even in defeat, the Persians civilized Alexander the Great and his Macedonian and Greek hordes, introduced the small town boys to the protocol, trappings and grandeur of an imperial power and implanted the strongly held belief in the divine right of the kings, later adopted by Alexander's military commanders and successors.
On these beliefs were laid the foundations of the structure for the Roman and Byzantine empires. The Islamic Omayyed Caliphate in Damascus and later the Abbassid Caliphate in Baghdad also borrowed from the same state structures and ceremonies. Up to the 7thcentury, the Persians disputed with the Romans control of Asia Minor and Syria, which exhausted them both, making them easy prey for the Muslim Arabs. Persians then acted as a civilizing sieve to nomad Turks, Mongols and others from the horse-riding nurseries of the Eurasian steppes who played such havoc for centuries in Asia and Europe alike.
Iran's reach to influence regional and world events remains as durable as ever. The Iranian hostage taking of US diplomats certainly tilted in 1980 elections against US President Carter made to look impotent ,leaving a visceral desire in US for revenge. In 1996 BB Netanyahu's Likud won only because Israeli Arabs denied its traditional support to Labour party following firing of Katusha rockets by its Hizbolla partisans in South Lebanon and the expected Israeli retaliation against Lebanese civilians. It was the Lebanese Hizbullah which killed 259 US marines in Beirut in 1983 making US go home. It has even attacked Israeli missions and assets in Latin America.
Conclusion ;
The collapse of the Karakitai in Transoxiana, engineered by Muhammad II, was fraught with dangers of which the latter was probably ignorant. The Persian historian of the Mongols, Juvaini, aided by the perspective of years, put into the mouth of the dying Atsiz the injunction to his sons not to fight the Gur Khan because "he was a great wall behind which were terrible foes." The pre-vision of Atsiz may be doubted, but the prophecy, even if invented post facto, was true enough.
The collapse of secular Saddam regime like the Buddhist Karakitai has been engineered by George W. Bush . His father , President George H.W. Bush whose military chief during the 1990 war on Iraq , Gen Colin Powell demanded that clear objectives be defined ( and left having been lied to by the CIA Chief and made irrelevant by the current US Administration ), was wise enough not to demolish the Saddam Hussein's secular regime and open a Pandora's box . But he was responsible for thoughtlessly encouraging the Shias and Kurds to revolt against Saddam Hussein, who killed thousands of Iraqi army, police and bureaucrats ,Baathists and their supporters .US leaders blame Saddam Hussein for the ruthless suppression of the rebellion for which really the former are responsible. Bush Senior and the Americans then just watched the gory events.
Let not Ariel Sharon of Israel and George W. Bush behave like Otrar's Governor Inalchik and Mahmood II .
Suicide bombing is an acquired tool in Sunni's repertoire of struggle against uneven odds, but since the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, martyrdom has become a part of Shia Psyche . The Assassins originated from Iran. A secular Iraq was fooled into taking on the fury of the Khomeini revolution in early 1980s. A direct attack against Iran now will change the entire situation and even bring all Muslims together, with the Chinese, Russians and others letting Anglo-Saxons having an interesting time .
(K Gajendra Singh, served as Indian Ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan in1992 -96. Prior to that, he served as ambassador to Jordan (during the1990 - 91Gulf war), Romania and Senegal . He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies, in Bucharest . The views expressed here are his own.- Email-Gajendrak@hotmail.com)
"The arrogance of military power has led to a grave crisis - and to a decline of the United States' role and influence." Mikhail Gorbachev.
"The president is living in a dream world,'' US Sen. Barbara Boxer.
On Iran , US Administration has reached the pre-Iraq invasion rhetoric level of 2003 , when against the UN Charter and world opinion ,President George Bush decided to invade Iraq after having assembled a naval armada and air and land forces in the region ,cheerlead by a subservient US media . Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice are accusing Tehran of developing nuclear weapons and exporting terrorism, just as Saddam Hussein was allegedly doing. Iran is also not abiding by U N resolutions on its nuclear weapons program, which, like Iraq then, it denies it has. UN Nuclear Agency in Vienna has found no proof of a weapons program .Neither there was one in Iraq in 2003. Almost all accusations made by US President , his deputy and others , exaggerated by US corporate owned media proved to be false.
But after 4 years of blunders and stupidity , the situation is unlike March, 2003 , with an isolated Bush administration now under siege having become unpopular and discredited at home and with allies abroad .In Iran it faces a people with a long history of survival beginning with Alexander and his uncouth Macedonian hordes , Arabs ,Turks , Mongols and others. And they succeeded in civilizing most of them.
Even the new Chairman of the US Senate Intelligence Committee , John D. Rockefeller (D) took umbrage at the Bush administration's increasingly hostile barrage against Iran .The efforts to portray it as a growing threat were uncomfortably reminiscent of the rhetoric about Iraq. "To be quite honest, I'm a little concerned that it's Iraq again," Senator Rockefeller said in an interview on 19 January. "This whole concept of moving against Iran is bizarre." "I don't think that policymakers in this administration particularly understand Iran," he added. Rockefeller, a moderate , with good access to most classified intelligence about the threat from Tehran felt that US agencies still knew little about either Iran's internal dynamics or its intentions in the Middle East.
On how President Bush has dealt with the threat of Islamic fundamentalism since 119 attacks, Rockefeller believed that the campaign against international terrorism was "still a mystery" to the President. "I don't think he understands the world," he said. "I don't think he's particularly curious about the world. I don't think he reads like he says he does." He added, "Every time he's read something he tells you about it, I think."
Over Bush's policy of 'Surge ' ie sending additional 21,500 troops to Iraq ,hot words are being exchanged between Democrat party ,resurgent after Bush's Republican party debacle in November elections and the White House. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Democrats are backing a nonbinding Senate Democratic resolution declaring that "It is not in the national interest of the United States to deepen its military involvement in Iraq, particularly by escalating the US military force presence in Iraq."
Pelosi warned that President Bush was wading too deeply into Iraq .It should not be "an obligation of the American people in perpetuity." She added that Bush "has dug a hole so deep he can't even see the light on this. It's a tragedy. It's a stark blunder." White House spokeswoman Dana Perino retorted that Pelosi's comments were "poisonous," stating that Bush feels that once additional troops reached Iraq and once they're in battle , the Congress won't cut off funds.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton , Democrat front runner for party's Presidential nomination during her recent visit to Baghdad met with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki. She felt that Bush's strategy had little chance of success. " The Iraqi government is not committed to taking the steps both militarily and politically that would help them to gain control over Baghdad and other places in the country," Clinton told NBC ."I do not think that this strategy has a very high level of success at all attached to it. In fact, I think that at best it's a holding pattern."But she supported " the beginning of a phased redeployment out of Baghdad and eventually out of Iraq completely." She backed placing an immediate cap on the number of US troops in the country, currently about 132, 000.
The arrival of new US reinforcements have met with increased attacks against occupation troops . On 20 January , at least 19 American troops were killed,athe deadliest day for US forces in two years, including 12 brought down in a helicopter crash claimed by the resistance and 5 in an attack by militia fighters in Shia holy city of Karbala A British soldier was killed by a roadside bomb and 4 other soldiers were wounded in the attack in Basra and south Iraq.
Bush raises the stakes;
It was the prospect of " hot pursuit" raids into Iran, raised by Bush last week, that fuelled fears that the Administration was preparing the public for attacks on Iran. Many analysts have been warning since 2004 against a planned US attack alone or in cahoots with Israel on Iran , one of the so called axis of evil , in the hoary Western tradition of demonizing those they want to invade , colonise and then loot.
US accusations of Tehran aiding militias and insurgents who attack US troops in Iraq , have been denied by Tehran. Yes, most of Iraq's Shia ruling elite and al-Badr militia were financed and trained by Iran when Saddam Hussein was a US darling in 1980s.Tehran also extended support to Kurds in north Iraq , whenever pressurized by the Saddam regime.
Having flouted most international rules, regulations , treaties and conventions since Bush was crowned by a judicial sleight of hand in 2000, tarnishing USA's electoral and legal credibility , Washington has now initiated clearly illegal and aggressive actions like the abduction of accredited Iranian personnel in Irbil in north Iraqi Kurdistan .Even the Kurdish leaders , beholden to Washington and thriving under US protection since the end of 1991 Gulf War ,have demurred and protested as have the Iraqi leaders and government 'elected' or selected by US Viceroys since the occupation.
Senior Iraqi Shia politicians , now in power, and beholden to Tehran since decades are now required to implement Bush's policy of 'Surge' ,by adding over 21,500 troops to help fight militias , provide security and reconstruction .They are naturally reluctant in striking against Shia militias and their leaders on whose support they survive , politically and militarily . In spite of public bon homie and some token measures .there are clear signs of a growing rift between the White House and the Iraqi leadership resident in Baghdad's Green Zone fortress , on policies at home or vis a vis Tehran.
A tour of the Middle East by the US Congress harassed Secretary of State Condi Rice , after her August trip last year when she described the destruction of civilian infrastructure and deaths in Lebanon by Israel as the birth pangs of a new Middle East ,evoked little enthusiasm or real support from USA's Sunni allies in the region , who are in panic over Tehran's expanding influence in the region , Muslim Ummah and the world .
After the Lebanese Hezbollah gave a bloody nose to Israel's famed commandos in July-August war last year ,its leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, both Shias were voted the most popular Muslim leaders even in the Sunni bastion of Egypt and elsewhere much to the discomfiture of regional Sunni leaders ,who had lambasted the Hezbollah after Tel Aviv used the abduction of its two soldiers to launch a full scale war it had prepared for . The continued ramification of Israeli defeat ended in the recent resignation of Israeli Military chief Lt.Gen Dan Halutz. "Since the end of the war we had been expecting Halutz to resign and [Defence Minister Amir] Peretz and [Prime Minister Ehud] Olmert to follow him," gloated Sheikh Nasrallah .
Iraq's other neighbour- Turkey's position ;
There is little common ground on Iraq between USA and its NATO ally Turkey with a million armed men and a key regional player .Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told a US TV channel last month that with the dead in sectarian violence having exceeded 650,000 ... it could only be explained as a civil war. He added that Iraq's neighbors have a huge stake in the Iraqi civil war not spreading outwards .In addition to Iran, Turkey, Syria and US having bilateral or trilateral meetings, there should be an international consensus that includes all neighboring countries and the U.N. Security Council.
As for the 'Surge ' in US troops, Erdogan felt that it was time for a phased reduction of US military presence in Iraq. Erdogan had earlier opposed dispatch of more US troops to Iraqi Kurdistan .He declared recently that if faraway US could ferry troops to Iraq then Ankara had the right to enter north Iraq too ,as the situation there impinged on Turkey directly and adversely.
Thousands of rebels from PKK (Turkish Workers Party ) are now sheltered in north Iraq .Since 1984 over 37,000 have been killed in the Kurdish rebellion in Turkey's South East. Ankara has some times laid claims on the north Iraq city of Kirkuk , floating on oil like Kuwait , where its kinsman the Turcomen have a sizable presence. This region was occupied by the British after the First World War ceasefire following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, of which the region was a province.
Policy differences between Washington and Iraqi leaders ; The acrimonious exchanges between US Administration and Prime Minister, al-Maliki on implementation of Bush's policy of 'Surge " have become public . To counter US criticism of his failure to halt sectarian violence al Maliki said, "I wish that we could receive strong messages of support from the US so we don't give some boost to the terrorists and make them feel that they might have achieved success." To Condi Rice's statement of his government living on "borrowed time", he responded tartly, "Secretary Rice is expressing her own point of view if she thinks that the government is on borrowed time, whether it is borrowed time for the Iraqi government or American administration."
Al Maliki claimed if Iraqi security forces were given sufficient training and equipment, which were denied , Iraq could be stabilized and allow US troops to begin withdrawing ."I think that within three to six months our need for the American troops will dramatically go down." But "that's on the condition that there are real strong efforts to support our military forces." US officials are how ever worried that military equipment would end up in with the Shia militias ,which has happened.
Regarding action to eliminate all militias , al Maliki announced that 400 members ,including some commanders of the Mahdi Army loyal to the highly popular and powerful cleric Moqtada al-Sadr were arrested. One Mahdi commander told the AP , "Our top leadership has told us to lay low and not confront the Americans. But if SadrCity is attacked, if civilians are hurt, we will ignore those orders and take matters in our own hands. We won't need orders from Sheik Muqtada ."
Mahdi street fighters have been told not to wear their black uniforms and hide their weapons and make their checkpoints less visible. It appears that instructions are being obeyed. With the US plans a public secret, Moqtda also reshuffled the Mahdi Army command structure, transferring many leaders to new districts and firing others of suspected loyalty.
The six-member Moqtda al-Sadr bloc which boycotted the Iraqi Parliament would rejoin on 21 January , in spite of the arrest of Sheikh Abdel Hadi Al-Diraji, a close aide of Moqtda , who has ordered his men to avoid armed confrontation with the government. The Parliament boycott was enforced when Al Maliki met with Bush in Amman in spite of Moqtda's demand. Al Maliki depends on Moqtda for political and military support .The other Shia Dawa militia is under Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim of Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI).
In an interview out on 19 January in Rome 's La Republica ,Moqtada stated that he never trusted Prime Minister al-Maliki nor his predecessor Iyad Allawi. He accused them of being in cahoots with the US plans to destroy him and his militia. A crackdown on his movement "has already kicked off." "Last night they arrested over 400 of my people. But it is not us they want to destroy, it's Islam," he declared. Moqtda also denied that members of his militia have infiltrated the army and police. "The exact opposite has happened: it is our militia which is full of spies. It is actually very easy to infiltrate an army of the people." He also denied that those who chanted his name and insulted Saddam Hussein at his execution were his men. "Those were people paid to disparage me, to make me appear like the person responsible for the hanging," he declared .
Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a former Iraqi Prime Minister , when asked if an increase in US troops would be a threat to Iran, replied: "We don't want Iraq to pose a threat to any country. We also don't accept that any neighbouring country poses a threat to Iraq."
The Iraqi Government and the Mahdi Army could employ the tactics used by Washington's major non-NAO strategic ally in the war against terrorism, Pakistan and its all purpose powerful tool ,Inter-Services Intelligence agency ( ISI ). When pressed by Washington , Islamabad produces a few Al Qaeda operatives , mostly low level ,for Washington to garner some propaganda points . Five years on after 911 , the results of the war on terrorism are dismal , with most convinced it is but a charade , to keep US public frightened for Bush Administration to implement its partisan agenda .In return Pakistan has received billions worth of aid , mostly for defence, which has only strengthened the strangle hold of the military over civil society.
Iraq leaders criticise US action in Irbil;
Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim of SCIRI , leader of the 130-member Shia bloc in the Parliament and thus one of Iraq's most powerful politicians and who was hosted at the White House in early December criticised the US action in Irbil .He described the detention of the Iranians an attack on Iraq's sovereignty. "Regardless of the Iranian position, we consider these actions as incorrect," Hakim, told the BBC. "They represent a kind of attack on Iraq's sovereignty, and we hope such things are not repeated."
In a statement Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, expressed "disturbance and condemnation" of the predawn operation and urged the US military to release the arrested. Iraq's Foreign Minister, Hoshyar Zebari, also a Kurd , said that Iraq needed good relations with Iran. "We can't change the geographical reality that Iran is our neighbour. This is a delicate balance and we are treading a very thin line," he said. "We fully respect the views, policies and strategy of the United States, which is Iraq's strongest ally , but the Iraqi government has national interests of its own."
US Iran hostilities would disrupt peace in the region and the growing affluence of Kurdish war lords . In that case Turkey might even intervene. To calm the situation President Talbani , who has been to Ankara a few times , went to Damascus , first such visit in 3 decades by an Iraqi Head of State . Of course he visited Damascus many times during the Saddam era .Post 2003 invasion, Of course Iraq's Shia leadership, with long close relations with Iran have visited Tehran many times. Even convicted embezzler but Minister ,exile Ahmet Celebi, once a blue eyed boy of the Pentagon .
Iranians have played it cool and not made such a big issue of the raid .Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Husseini condemned the raid. "The activity of all those people at our office in Irbil was legal and was in cooperation with and had the approval of the Iraqi side," Husseini told Iran's state-owned Arabic language satellite channel Al-Alam.
In ratcheting up tensions beyond threats, Washington might try to implement the so called 'Khuzestan gambit' i.e. creating dissentions and even intervening across south Iraq in Iran's major oil producing region of Khuzestan , of ancient Elam and Cyrus's Persian empire's capital Susa. Now it is sparsely populated by preponderantly Arab Shias. During the 1980-99 Iraq-Iran war , Shia Arabs on the two sides of the border had fought loyally for their countries .
When the Shias in Basra were quiet watching disenfranchised Sunni elite take on the US troops and harm each other , British James Bonds were active across in Khuzestan .But Iraqi Shia militias would take on all occupation troops if Iran or themselves are attacked. A large majority of Shia population and leadership is now strongly opposed to the occupation. So the un-nerved British forces fled from Basra city to the airport and safe desert bases for easier Dunkirk like run for home, when necessary.
The British had even suggested that they would like to shift their troops to a more important mission in South Afghanistan , where along with reluctant NATO it is now confronted by a resurgent Taleban. With Pakistan having lost over 800 troops in its North WestFrontierProvince and forced into a peace agreement with the Taleban , attacks against NATO forces in Afghanistan have increased .
Muhammad Hanif, a Taliban spokesman captured by British and Afghan troops near the border with Pakistan, on being grilled, confessed that the Taleban Emir Mullah Omar lives in Quetta in Pakistan. "He is protected by ISI," Hanif said. Afghan President, Hamid Karzai, made similar allegations in the past .But Aftab Ahmad Sherpao, Pakistan's Interior Minister denied the reports, "We have no information on the whereabouts of Mullah Omar. He is not living in Pakistan."
Following the old European and now US policy of divide and rule ,Washington is successfully igniting dissensions and perhaps succeeding in arousing the dormant historic hatred between Arab Sunnis and Shias in Iraq, who are now savagely killing each other , more so since the US reported that Al Qaeda damaged the Shia Golden Dome mosque in Samarrah early last year . US cracked the first Shia-Sunni fault line in Iraqi nationalism when then President George Bush Senior asked Shias and Kurds of Iraq to rise against Saddam Hussein at the end of 1991 Gulf War .And then did nothing when Saddam Hussein regime attacked by the rebels suppressed the uprising brutally . That would not inspire Shia trust in US words .The illegal trial and lynching of Saddam Hussein under US direction, control and occupation has deepened this sectarian chasm further.
Robert Gates- A strong and a long time US presence in Middle East;
It was quite apparent that the Iraq Study Group Report was just another red herring to mollify a disenchanted US public and keep the new Congress diverted .USA would not walk away from the region .Listen to what a major contributor to ISG report, the newly minted Defence Secretary Robert Gates said about the buildup of US forces in the region, involving the dispatch of an aircraft carrier and Patriot missile defence batteries , apart from US troops.
"We are simply reaffirming that statement of the importance of the Gulf region to the United States and our determination to be an ongoing strong presence in that area for a long time into the future," said Gates on the first arrival of reinforcements in Baghdad as part of Bush's "surge" strategy. The US military buildup is intended to signal American determination to remain a dominant player in the region.
"The Iranians clearly believe we are tied down in Iraq, that they have the initiative, that they are in a position to press us in many ways," Gates told journalists in Brussels. "They are doing nothing to be constructive in Iraq at this point." He added that Tehran was seeking to foment conflict in Lebanon through Hezbollah.
But Gates did not rule out the possibility of talks in the future if Iran changed its behaviour. "When the Iranians are prepared to play a constructive role in dealing with some of these problems there might be opportunities for engagement," he said.
Bush 'Stays the Course' - in aggressive mode; When asked if the alleged killing of Americans by Iranian agents in Iraq constituted an act of war , Bush said he was not a lawyer so could not define what constituted an act of war but "let me just say it's unacceptable". He warned if the US failed in Iraq it would lead to a wider regional crisis, "If the [Iraq] government falls apart and there is sectarian enclaves and violence it'll invite Iran into the Shia neighbourhoods."
On June 21, 2005, General John R Vines, then a senior US commander in Iraq, told reporters that the insurgents had probably drawn on bomb-making expertise from Saddam's battle hardened army. US media and the British keep on claiming Iranian hand in supplying and helping Iraqi militias, even to the Sunni resistance.
Baltimore Times reported that at the current spending rate on the Iraq War, being waged along with the fighting in Afghanistan, the cost of the Iraq invasion will reach $600 billion this year. Much of the funding for the war comes from outside the normal budgetary process , through emergency appropriation bills.
US Congress rallies against 'Surge'; The policy of the 'Surge 'was concocted to counter ISG Report by Neo-Cons of American Enterprise Institute and former Lt Gen Keane . But Democrat Congressman John Murtha, a former decorated Marine and vocal opponent of the Iraq war and the incoming chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee said, "If we have our way there will be substantial change and substantial pressure put on this administration… The allies don't want us over there. The Iraqis don't want us over there and we expect that even the Republicans will support us when we get our bill up."
He then added ominously, (we want a) "redeployment of troops out of Iraq" and (we will) "restrict funding until some of the problems are fixed at home." [ redeployment to new massive bases in Iraq which can house up to 70,000 soldiers !]
Murtha clarified, " You know they say that Al Qaeda is causing the divisions and sectarian violence? The invasion itself is what causes the sectarian violence –It's the occupation causes the violence. That's the problem we have and we have to change directions."
Murtha had raised the alarm in 2005 that the US army had done what it could do in Iraq .It was now broken. It was followed by the Generals revolt , when 8 senior retired generals went against Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and blamed him for defective Iraq war planning and its implementation. The two top Generals, Arabic knowing Gen. John Abizaid ( of Lebanese extraction ) Head of Centcom and Gen George Casey the man on the ground in Iraq who expressed themselves against increased US troops , are being eased out. Along with the naval build up in the Gulf , a Naval Admiral is being appointed apparently to carry out operations against Iran .
But the opposition to the war has seeped even into the ranks of the US forces . Some 1,000 active-duty soldiers and Marines urged US lawmakers to support a quick withdrawal. Although they're duty-bound to carry out the President's orders, they can legally express their views. The statement, carried on the Web site AppealforRedress.org, was signed by 1,080 troops by 16 January.
It urged the US Congress to support "the prompt withdrawal of all American military forces and bases from Iraq," adding, "Staying in Iraq will not work and is not worth the price." "Despite our best efforts, Iraq fell further into chaos," said Marine Corps Sgt. Liam Madden at a press conference .He believed that the war "benefits neither the United States nor Iraq, and especially not the American military".
Senate leaders have introduced a non-binding bipartisan resolution opposing the 'surge' policy .It has been drafted by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.), Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl M.Levin (D-Mich.) and Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) "The whole thing could let Republicans off the hook with a meaningless, toothless vote," said Andrews, who has been meeting with senior Democrats on war issues. "It's a pressure valve that could work against us."
A PewResearchCenter poll released on 16 January showed that 61 percent of Americans oppose sending more troops to Iraq. Some 60 percent of Republicans support Bush's plan and 33 percent oppose it. Among Democrats, 12 percent support it and 82 percent oppose it.
The media is owned and manipulated by corporate interests who fund elections and employ lobbies with a US$ 2.4 billion treasure chest to get favourable laws enacted. Thus the interests of the poor and the middle classes remain neglected .But even the misinformed and info-challenged US electorate has deciphered the truth in Iraq and in November elections bashed up the Republican party . Only an election deters these , some not so, honourable legislators , afraid of losing the power and the pelf they enjoy . Republicans slated for next elections are opposing the 'surge '.Hillary Clinton , who has announced her bid for the Presidency , a fervid supporter of Israel and a strong supporter of US war on Iraq is now singing a different tune .There would be lot of political maneuverings but US would not easily give up its addiction to cheap Middle East oil and enormous profits for the energy interests and the military industry complex , which promotes wars .They rule the roost in the USA.
Retired US Generals recommend political solution in the Senate ; A panel of retired generals told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 18 January that sending 21,500 additional troops to Iraq would do little to solve the underlying political problems in the country. "Too little and too late," said Gen. Joseph P. Hoar, a former chief of the Central Command. He added that American leaders had failed to understand the political forces at work in the country. "The solution is political, not military," he said. Gen. Barry R. McCaffrey, who commanded troops in the first Gulf War, described it as "A fool's errand." Other countries had concluded that the effort in Iraq was not succeeding, and "our allies are leaving us and will be gone by summer." He said that Iraqis should try to make political deals domestically and negotiate for stability with neighboring nations, particularly Syria and Iran.
"The United States did not understand the consequences of deposing Saddam Hussein," said Lt. Gen. William E. Odom, a former director of the National Security Agency. The war benefited Iran and Al Qaeda, not the United States. "There is no way to win a war that is not in your interests," he said. USA is in a 'No Win' situation. Even a plan to start withdrawing US troops carried the risk of the armed Iraqi population to step up the level of attacks. "We will be shot at as we are going out." said Gen. Jack Keane, a former vice chief of staff of the Army.
Iran's counter moves ; After the ISG recommendation that US talk with Syria and Iran , Tehran was somewhat euphoric and so was Damascus. But that is now gone and Tehran is pondering over its moves carefully to counter political and military moves by Washington. Ali Larijani, Iran's chief negotiator on the nuclear question delivered a joint letter to the Saudi King Abdullah from the Iranian Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad requesting Saudi mediation with the US. The letter was delivered just before Rice's visit to Riyadh. Reuters quoted an unnamed Saudi official saying Iran wanted the Saudi King to relay a goodwill message to Washington to "help bring opinions together" between Iran and the US.
Ever green Expediency Council Chairman Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani , a former President who lost to Ahmadinejad said that the US having failed to achieve its goals in the region, was now seeking to embark on a new adventure to cover up its defeat. He urged the need for vigilance.
To temper President Ahmadinejad's over blown rhetoric and consequent popularity with the public, but bad press in the West , Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has allowed 150 parliamentarians to attack the President's economic policies. In a signed letter they blamed Ahmadinejad for the raging inflation , high unemployment and failure to even present the budget in time. They decried his going on a tour of Latin America at the time of a crisis. Western media hopefully suggested that the mounting criticism could mean Ahmadinejad's political doom and even impeachment. But on return from Latin America Ahmadinejad reiterated that Tehran's program on nuclear energy would continue.
Like (the Chess King) Ali Khamenei might remove from the centre (Knight ) Ahmadinejad with his awkward moves. Iranians have shown Chess like long term planning and finesse to counter US moves in the region , even offering full cooperation in 2003 ( an honourable draw ) , if US normalized bilateral relations disrupted since 1979 . Always many moves ahead they nurtured SCIRI , Dawa and other Iraqi groups and Kurds .Since the invasion of Iraq , they now occupy and control the centre (as in Chess board) , with open and hidden threats to any US moves .
In Bishop like pincer moves across the region, Tehran has smartly moved with Hamas after its electoral victory in Palestine ,taking it under its wings , with its top political leader Khaled Meshaal resident in Damascus . If Iraq President Talabani is visiting Damascus , so is Palestine Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to meet with President Bashar Assad but meeting with Meshaal did not materialize as no agreement could be reached on a unity government in Palestine . Perhaps both visitors have US acquiescence if not approval .They must also plan if US commitment in the region weakens or dwindles away.
Ahmed Yusuf, an adviser to Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniya, said Hamas ministers had received promises of donations amounting to £500m during recent visits in the Muslim world. But the largest pledge was from Iran, more than that of EU. Last year Tehran pledged £125 m to help Hamas survive the international boycott led by USA. After inroads in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon , Tehran's support to Hamas has created serious concern in US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states- at Iran's rapid expansion as a regional power.
Yuval Diskin, the head of Israel's secret service, Shin Bet, warned that international sanctions against the authority were forcing Hamas into a closer relationship with Iran. President Bush has asked Congress to approve $83 million for Abbas 's security forces. Israeli officials transferred $100 million in withheld revenues 9 collected as Tax and Customs dues to the Authority.
Palestine has become an arena of Shia Iran and Sunni Arab rivalry. Apart from Fathah and other cadres ,Abbas is raising a 3,500-strong Presidential Guard, as a bulwark against Hamas' militia of 5,000 gunmen. .If Iran is supplying funds and arms to Hamas then Egypt, Jordan , Saudi Arabia and USA are arming the now discredited and corrupt Palestine Authority .Hamas and Fathah militants are killing each other apart from the Israeli forces genocidal ways in Gaza in another example of divide and rule.
Apparently Hezbollah had abducted two Israeli soldiers last July to also ease intense Israeli pressure off Hamas in Gaza .Of course it did not expect a full blown savage destructive war by Israel as Nasrallah himself later admitted. But it turned out well for them and has altered the strategic power landscape in Lebanon and the region benefiting Iran. Israel must now watch over its shoulders before any reckless military venture.
In spite of blatant Western lies , nationalist Hezbollah movement has very wide support in Lebanon , where USA has now sent in its disruptive agents to counter Hezbollah's peaceful sit in for a role in decision making appropriate to its showing in the war and its popularity .In Syria with over 80% Sunni population , the ruling elite is dominated by Assad family led Shia Alawaites .But no where in the world such a minuscule minority rules as do the Jews and the Israel Lobby in USA. If the Holocaust can not be questioned neither can the influence of Israeli Lobby in USA. A recent book by former President and highly respected peacemaker Jimmy Carter , comparing Israel's apartheid system with that of former state of South Africa has brought the whole force of Israeli lobby on his head.
Condi Rice in the New Middle East after last years birth pangs; Condi Rice began her safari of the Middle East from Israel and returned via friendly Angela Markel's Berlin and London with Tony Blair still clinging on despite failed policies and other scandals .As for Rice's attempt at rejuvenating the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the Arab media simply described it as an attempt to change the subject .US has little credibility as an honest broker.
The carefully worded support that Arab allies are offering for Bush's new Iraq strategy highlights the deep suspicion among Washington's few real friends and puppets in the region that Iraq might already be a lost cause. The Bush plan " encountered strong skepticism across the Mideast, where many believe that even with more soldiers, America will fail to break the cycle of violence."
Rice who discussed the 'Surge' plan in Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, got only vague commitments and lukewarm response She and 8 Arab foreign ministers in a statement welcomed U.S. commitment to defend Iraq 's " territorial integrity and guarantees of its stability ." The host, Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheik Mohammed Al Sabah, when asked if it was already too late to stop the rising cycle of Sunni-Shiite violence in Iraq replied, "Nine foreign ministers are meeting in Kuwait today to try to prevent Iraq from sliding into a civil war." " I think that speaks volumes." Or rather the hopelessness of the situation.
Earlier key Sunni Arab allies while endorsing the goals of Bush's plan, and expressing hopes of success , almost in the same breath suggested that the Shia -led government in Baghdad cannot or would not implement the plan.
Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal was perhaps the most positive , who agreed " with the full objectives set by the new plan, the strategy." After talks with Rice earlier , he commented , "This has objectives that ... if it were applied, it will solve the problems facing Iraq." But he emphasized that it was the responsibility of the Iraq government alone. "We cannot be Iraqis more than Iraqis," Saud emphasised. "Other countries can help, but the burden, the whole burden and taking a decision will be the Iraqis'."
It was well put by the Saudi newspaper Al Jazirah which noted, "The Americans are trying to get out of the Baghdad bottleneck and they are looking for agent players in managing their conflict with Tehran to make their new strategy in Iraq successful."
Of course the Sunni Arab world would not trust Prime Minister al-Maliki's government with close ties with Shia Iran. The Shias have become empowered after many centuries , courtesy Washington and would not let go .Rice did admit that" There are concerns about whether the Maliki government is prepared to take an evenhanded, nonsectarian path here. There's no doubt about that."
Bush's plan that al-Maliki use Iraqi troops to crack down on militants from both sides and meet a series of benchmarks to promote reconciliation between Sunnis and Shias is unlikely to succeed. Al-Maliki has resisted U.S. pressure in the past . Before Bush unveiled his plan al-Maliki was made to agree that he would go after his political ally Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army.
But he has already criticised US for not imparting proper training or providing weapons to Iraqi forces ( aka artillery , tanks and helicopter gun ships ), which US fears might be passed on to the militias and used against US forces .To begin with al-Maliki has appointed his own man as commander of the Iraqi forces in Baghdad against US choice.
Rice tried to exploit fear of Iran among US's Sunni allies, many with substantial Shia minorities, to support its plans, But have not they outsourced their security to USA since decades in return for free exploitation of the regions oil riches by US led West. The Arab states have amassed massive arms inventories , earn fat bribes and subsidise US-UK military industry complex. They can hardly use these arms, as was proved in Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Scared and hoodwinked Saudi Arabia allowed US GIs including female troopers, a run of the Arabian peninsula, sacred soil according to Muslims. The rest ie Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda is history.
Yes , the statement in Kuwait did contain a coded signal to Iran, which was reportedly not part of the group's discussions. "Relations among all countries should be based on mutual respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states and on the principle of noninterference in the internal affairs of other nations," [ Does Washington respect this principle and what did the group do when US invaded Iraq illegally].
Intimidated and nervous, Sunni Arab rulers in Cairo, Amman, Riyadh and the Gulf are egging US to stay put in the region , to stop and roll back Iranian influence . They had acted similarly when Saudis, Kuwaitis , Emirates , Egypt , West et al had encouraged and funded 'brother Saddam' and Iraq in its 1980-88 war against a rampant Iran after the Khomeini led Shia revolution of 1979 .Iraq's Shia Arabs had fought against Iran's Revolutionary Guards and young boys seeking martyrdom .And how did the Arabs repay that debt and react to the US controlled and Al Maliki executed Kangaroo Court trials and lynching of 'brother Saddam'? In 2003 many in the Arab world were unhappy that for Arab honour , Iraqi officers and soldiers did not sacrifice themselves futilely against absurd odds in Iraq against F-16 , Cobra gun ships and massive artillery.( They melted to fight another day , as the Iraqi resistance now.)
But who among the Arabs would fight. Egypt initiated the 1973 war to recover its lands and oil fields lost to Israel after the 1967 debacle. The oil Sheikhs used the war to raise oil prices and its nouvo riche citizens went around lording over sophisticated Cairo and Beirut. After the 1979 peace treaty with Israel , Egypt , now on US pay roll retired .There can be no war with out Egypt in the Middle East( against Israel ) and no peace without Syria .During the 1980-88 Iraq-Iran war millions of Egyptians worked on Iraqi farms and industries for Iraqis doing the fighting .
It was Pakistani Brigadier Zia-ul- Haq who organized the military operation against PLO guerillas in Jordan and expelled them to Lebanon in 1977. (With the ruler scripting a message for the Pakistani Military Chief for saving his Kingdom , so a retired Pakistani General told me). So who will fight the Iranians or even Iraqi Shia Arabs now in militias , army and police . They and Sunni Iraqi resistance now fought Iran's Shia revolutionary guards and young boys looking for martyrdom.
Western Policy of Divide and Rule; USA and the perfidious Albion would only succeed in igniting a Shia-Sunni conflagration in the region except that oil prices would zoom and seriously affect the US and world economy. The US dilemma is how to expel Iran and keep control of Iraq, the region with its oil wealth for its use , as hitherto . It is a mission impossible. The British divided Hindustan into Pakistan and India, so that a weaker Muslim Pakistan ( with its ruling military elite ), would perforce ally with the West to protect from USSR , Middle East oil wells ,for exclusive Western exploitation . This can be seen from the British records of the period quoted in a recent book by an Indian diplomat, who was ADC in 1947 to the last British Viceroy Lord Louis Mountbatten. Following the partition of India there was ethnic cleansing in West Pakistan , exchange of populations and millions of Hindus and Muslims butchered each other . The West is at its old game again in the Middle East.
One can not forget the most disruptive Joker in the pack; Israel .Now in a state of uncertainty and an existential threat in the wake of its defeat by Lebanon's Hezbollah. An Israeli Naval warship was disabled with Hassan Nasrallah giving a running commentary of the attack on Al Minar ,its TV channel , which Tel Aviv could not disrupt during the war .Apparently Hezbollah succeeded in breaking into Israeli communications net work .Some reports suggest among other things , by providing drugs to bored Israeli border guards across south Lebanon.
West and USA are now flaunting its military prowess and would later rewrite history . Except that with online media , internet blogs and many honest and dedicated media persons even in the West , one can surf and ferry out the truth .For example ,in the Second World War , USA played a minor role compared to the Soviet Union in the destruction of the Nazi war machine in which USSR sacrificed tens of millions of its soldiers and citizens .Its economy was destroyed .Come lately US ( it has already spent more time in Iraq now than in that war ) and even UK tried to take all the credit . They produced 'The longest day ' and 'Gen Patton ' and UK dreams up James Bond victories in the battle field and the bed room .Even channels like 'Discovery Channel ' spew lies all the time and brain wash the ignorant . Germans and Russian soldiers were accused of mass rapes and killings. US soldiers raped many thousands women in West Europe and it faced a very high rate of desertion in its troops. But for instant communications now ,you would not have heard of or very little of Gulags like Guantamano, Abu Ghraib , Bagram , genocide in Fallujah ,Haditha and elsewhere , and rendition by CIA for torture of innocents , mostly Muslims in secret places all around the world . This has been the core of the Western mental make up though out the colonial era and even now .
Shias developed the first human bomber , the Assassins and evolved the system of takkyia ie not telling the truth under duress and occupation making them very secretive in their methods as shown in Lebanon . So US would be making a grave mistake in attacking Iran , exposed as it is and fully stretched on the ground .Iran's military build up has not been degraded by sanctions like in Iraq , which had no navy or air force or missiles and even WMDs. US and China and others have provided enough military hardware including sophisticated missiles to Iran and Syria .
As for US righteousness most of the military hard ware US gifted to Pakistan to fight communism was used against democratic India .US now grants Air and Naval aircraft and hardware to counter terrorism in Afghanistan ( and Pakistan ).Israel and USA should not forget the deep tunnels and other innovations employed brilliantly in south Lebanon against such heavy odds.
Conclusions ;
Like Iraq , some fancy schemes are on the anvil in Pentagon. To ward off the threats to the world economy if Tehran curtailed oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the US has reportedly made contingency plans for the indefinite takeover of Iranian territory in Chah Bahar, which would deny Tehran its strategic leverage with Hormuz. Washington might even push for outright "regime change" in Tehran, never mind lack of troops necessary for even a limited war. Theoretically , would this not take the war and US troops to Iran ( via Azerbaijan ) , which will then face Russia across and the Caspian Sea.
During the failed 1979 US hostages rescue operation in Iran ordered by President Jimmy Carter , it was said that USSR had tipped Tehran about Washington's plans. Both Russia and China have serious and log term stakes in a united and stable Iran.
"The administration does have Iran on the brain, and I think they are exaggerating the amount of Iranian activities in Iraq," commented Kenneth Pollack, the director of research at the SabanCenter at the Brookings Institution, "There's a good chance that this is going to be counterproductive."
W Joseph Stroupe , editor of Global Events Magazine wrote recently that the Middle East was already 'like a sectarian tinderbox waiting for a spark to ignite its multiple civil wars-in-waiting. The United States' additional 21,500 new troops will be like a desperate roving band of flamethrowers let loose on the entire region, from Saudi Arabia to Iran. " Stroupe wondered if the current invasion plans were any better than of 2003 .Would it achieve only " an early but short-lived victory over Iran, only to massively lose the longer war, just as happened in Iraq? "
Iraq's sectarian and other militias will not lay down their arms and would fight the US led occupation forces to retain and further consolidate their hard-won power and prestige within their respective regions. Very importantly, the majority of Iraqis , who have come to rely on their respective militias for safety and security in the environment of the abject failure of Iraq's government and the US and British forces to provide such, would not wish to see their favored militias weakened or defanged.
Hence the population can be expected to deny all meaningful support to the US. Many will actively oppose the occupying powers through their respective militias, thereby dooming the entire effort to massive failure." If the US and Britain are perceived by Iraq's Shias as excessively targeting Shia militias while largely ignoring Sunni militias, then they risk mobilizing the entire body of Iraq's Shia population against the continued presence of foreign forces, resulting in a virtual Shia insurrection, with catastrophic results,' says Stroupe.
By unintentionally shoving the entire oil-and-gas-rich Middle East on to a fast track to chaos, the US will empower Russia as the immovable global energy kingpin. Already, Europe and Asia are being forced to reconsider placing too much reliance on the region for energy imports, opening the way for Russia." Africa and Latin America suffer from strategic instability and long distances haulage.
Iran would be helped in its recovery by Russia, China and other key energy exporting and consuming nations of the world. While signing another liquid gas contract with Tehran , Beijing brushed aside Washington's opposition in the spirit of recent UNSC resolution . Iran has excellent relations with Russia and China .The three powers could initiate a global energy consortium opposed to US power. It could be joined by others like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, with Iran even becoming a full member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is slowly morphing into a military alliance to counter a rapacious NATO , now getting ensnared in the Afghanistan morass .
" I am deeply concerned about Iraq. The task you have given me is becoming really impossible. Our forces are reduced now to very slender proportions… I do not see what political strength there is to face a disaster of any kind, and certainly I cannot believe that in any circumstances any large reinforcements would be sent from here…
There is scarcely a single newspaper… which is not consistently hostile to our remaining in this country. … Any alternative Government that might be formed here… would gain popularity by ordering instant evacuation. Moreover, in my own heart I do not see what we are getting out of it. …No progress has been made in developing the oil. Altogether I am getting to the end of my resources. --At present we are paying… millions a year for the privilege of living on an ungrateful volcano out of which we are in no circumstances to get anything worth having."
Extracts from a memorandum dated September 1, 1922 , from Winston Churchill , Colonial Secretary to Prime Minister David Lloyd George, whose government was on its last legs.
Both Bush and Blair claim to be great admirers of Churchill, but never come round to read this chapter in Iraq's history or Churchill's naval debacle at Gallipoli. Now another naval misadventure is under planning.
K Gajendra Singh, Indian ambassador (retired), served as ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan from August 1992 to April 1996. Prior to that, he served terms as ambassador to Jordan, Romania and Senegal. He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies. Copy right with the author. E-mail: Gajendrak@hotmail.com .
