Friday, November 21, 2014

India in 2025 and the Decline of American century and its Hegemony



India in 2025 and the Decline of American century and its Hegemony


Not only because of my knee problems, but even otherwise, have I rarely gone to lectures at Sapru House. But I did go yesterday and was greatly disappointed.


The 'Tour de Horizon' is a common phrase used when foreign delegations discuss international situation, in the region and then bilateral relations and problems (frank discussions in diplomatic parlance). The 'Tour de Horizon' was firmly rooted in 1990s, if not 1980s. Very well articulated, but not taking into account the economic and strategic changes, both regionally and internationally. There was not even mention of Russia or Putin, who is keeping MAD US at bay despite daily provocations. There were effusive compliments.


The English-speaking classes in India ,educated in public schools , British and American universities, journalists, diplomats still refuse to see that the United States power ,except its ability to destroy any state, barring Russia ,has lost ground and is losing it rapidly. This transformation has made very little impact on India's so-called intelligentsia, milk fed on London Times, the Economist, New York Times, Washington Post and their counterparts India.


When I tried to raise the question of decline of the American century and its hegemony. I was brusquely cut short. In any case, I had nothing to learn or I felt I could give to this elite audience .I had basically gone to meet one or two former Indian diplomats, whom I respect.


Recently I tried to marry Indian mythology's Bhasmasur with the post World War II nuclear aggrandizement settling into the so-called untested balance, incrementally into prohibitive Mutual Assured Destruction ie MAD.


At the end, I am reproducing my 10 earlier articles on the decline and end of the American century and its hegemony. I am now adding my latest article on all destructive  Bhasmasur ie United States playing a game of chicken almost every day with Russia under a wise but firm Putin, without US warmongers realizing that any mistake or error could end  into Armageddon.


Everyday new platforms are being added like satellite warfare, cyber warfare, total control over what people do, through programs which were exposed by, God bless him, Snowdon. I am told that in USA people who do not agree with the criminal intentions of the leaders dare not discuss and debate the matter on telephones, cell phones or even on social media. They can be easily accessed, warned, accused or even punished. Although I have stopped giving my e-mail at the end of my articles or blogs, there are now very few comments as there used to be from USA, UK and even Turkey. These like most other countries where peoples' almost inner thoughts, personal exchanges, viewpoints, are recorded for appropriate action by the big brother FBI, CIA etc etc.


Not even George Orwell would have imagined of such a control over or human beings in his 1984, or Goebbels the daily lies being spewed by Western leaders and broadcast by corporate and establishment media outlets.


As part of BRICS, as well as bilaterally ,multilaterally, many countries are now leaving the dollar currency regime to do their trade for which they are charged for converting currencies and reconverting dollars into the receiving end currencies .Use of such exchanges in US Dollars and enforcement of the dollar as the reserve currency , forces the nations of the world to keep large amounts of dollars to handle their bilateral trade ,other requirements and investments .It amounts to USD 5 to 6 trillion in US securities which bring little interest or returns. Instead USA and the West use these funds, now without much backing of gold into Stock Markets all over the world, like the game of monopoly in an international casino created by interrelated stock exchanges.


I also reproduce below URLs of two articles about the falling of the second shoe of American economy could happen sometime next year. The first shoe fell in September 2008.


I.M.F. Warns of Global Financial Risk from Fiscal Policies

By LANDON THOMAS Jr. OCT. 12, 2014


WASHINGTON — as global leaders sounded the alarm about a slowing world economy, a more immediate concern drew the attention of policy makers at the International Monetary Fund's semiannual meetings last week: inflated asset prices and increasing levels of debt overseas.

Bond markets in the euro zone are booming, debt in China is at historic highs and the United States stock market, even with its sharp fall last week, has been on a tear.

As economists and politicians heap pressure on global central banks to continue, and even escalate, their unusually loose monetary policies in order to spur global demand, the fear that these measures could provoke another market convulsion is spreading. For more below;


History's greatest Credit Bubble towards the worst-case scenario

November 7, 2014 posted by Doug Noland

Draghi follows Kuroda and king dollar spurs EM contagion fears.

From the perspective of my macro Credit analytical framework, history's greatest Credit Bubble advances almost methodically toward the worst-case scenario. After more than two decades, the Bubble has gone to the heart of contemporary "money" and perceived safe government debt. The Bubble has fully encompassed the world – economies as well as securities and asset markets. And we now have the world's major central banks all trapped in desperate "nuclear-option" "money"-printing operations. Moreover, serious cracks at the "periphery" of the global Bubble now feed "terminal phase" Bubble excess at the "core." Indeed, "hot money" finance exits faltering periphery markets to play Bubbling king dollar securities markets. Euphoria reigns. In many ways, the Bubble that gathered powerful momentum in the Nineties (with king dollar) has come full circle.


When the dollar starts going down there would be great disturbances and serious problems all over the world. You remember the Indian Sebi index came down to 8000. Now it is 26,000. China is not likely to pull the trigger, which has nearly USD 1.3 trillion in securities and other big dollar currency holdings. Fall of dollar will impact China badly ,with little chance of America paying securities in gold. Reportedly, China, whose economy is still owned by public sector up to nearly 50% is also indebted by gigantic loans by public sector banks ,to public and private enterprises. The stimulus is almost at par with the US stimulus. Except that apart from armaments and flowing from it high-tech, US produces not enough of exports. It is trade deficit is still half USD 1 trillion.


K.Gajendra Singh 20November, 2014, Delhi.



                                  FOUNDATION FOR INDO-TURKIC STUDIES                     

Tel/Fax; 43034706                                                                  Amb (Rtd) K Gajendra Singh                                                      

Emails;                                                   A-44, IFS Apartments                                                                     Mayur Vihar –Phase 1,                                                                Delhi 91, India.

                                                                                                          21 November .2014


A Short History of the Decline of the American Century & Its Hegemony (2000 -13)


"Keynes's collective work amounted to a powerful argument that capitalism was by its very nature unstable and prone to collapse. Far from trending toward some magical state of equilibrium, capitalism would inevitably do the opposite. It would lurch over a cliff," --- Hyman Minsky.

"Capitalism has conjured up such gigantic means of production and of exchange, that it is like the sorcerer who is no longer able to control the powers of the nether world whom he has called up by his spells"- Karl Marx


John Galbraith had a witticism that is apt to this discourse: 'The only purpose of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."


"When there is a general change of conditions, it is as if the entire creation had been changed and the whole world been altered." - Ibn Khaldun

"History is ruled by an inexorable determinism in which the free choice of major historical figures plays a minimal role", Leo Tolstoy 

"History is but glorification of murderers, criminals and robbers." - Karl Popper

The author has kept a watch and written about the decline of the American Century and its hegemony since the first anniversary of 11 September, 2001                               


2.The decline of the American Century   Sept 11, 2002

3. The US Empire –Beginning of the End Game   24 Nov, 2006

4. The Decline and Coming Fall of US Hegemony March 30, 2008

5. Western Military-Capitalist Civilization in Disarray September 25, 2008;

6. Corporate Culture and Greed Sink the American Republic 17 May, 2009

7. Confirmation of Pressure on Dollar and US Decline 8 October, 2009

8. The Looming Mother of all Economic and Social Crisis 11 May, 2010, etc


9. Post Sept 2008 Crippled Economy & US Strategic Decline

Smoke and Storm Signals, 4 July.2011


10. Post Bretton Woods; Emerging Outlines of New International Monetary Order


11. USA; Bhasmasur Gone MAD


Amb (Retd) K Gajendra Singh